Cricket betting tips: India v England, fourth Test

2pts Kuldeep Yadav top India first innings bowler at 7/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)

1pt Ravi Jadeja to make a first innings fifty at 10/3 (Betway)

1pt Ravi Jadeja to make a first innings hundred at 12/1 (Betway)

1pt Zak Crawley to make a first innings fifty at 9/4 (bet365)

1pt Zak Crawley to make a first innings hundred at 7/1 (bet365)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Bazball faces its biggest test yet when England renew hostilities with India in the fourth Test in Ranchi, starting on Friday, 4:00am UK time, currently 2-1 behind in the series with two matches to play.

England’s stunning comeback victory in the first Test in Hyderabad suddenly feels like a distant memory, and the manner in which they succumbed to a 434-defeat in Rajkot last week was most disappointing, especially having reduced the hosts to 33-3 on day one, and then at one stage looked well set with the bat as they promised to claim a first-innings lead.

England have certainly had their chances and if they do go on to the lose the series, will look back with regret at a number of missed opportunities. India have been far from bombproof, without Virat Kohli for the entirety of the series, and KL Rahu and Ravi Jadeja for various parts of it. Jasprit Bumrah is to be rested this week as India look to manage his workload.

England haven’t been penetrative enough with the ball in the first innings, understandably so given the inexperience of their spinners, while the batting has lacked a ruthless streak, only passing 400 once in the series so far despite working themselves into a number of strong positions. The middle order has offered very little in the way of impactful contribution, with the Yorkshire axis of Joe Root and Jonny Bairstow very poor.

Bazball not yet dead and buried

I still wouldn’t write England off. They were 2-0 down in last summer’s Ashes before rallying to draw the series 2-2, and Ben Stokes’ side beat South Africa 2-1 a year earlier despite losing the first Test at Lord’s by an innings. This team is resilient and brave enough to turn the series on its head – whether they are good enough to a man, 1-11, is a much bigger issue.

It will be fascinating to see what type of surface is served up in Ranchi. Much of the early talk suggests the pitch is dry, with cracks already visible, but I’d be careful about making too many assumptions at the time of writing, and if anything, I think a rank turner would suit England better.

England’s spinners were outskilled on a flat pitch in Rajkot, the hosts still able to take 20 wickets without a great deal of assistance from the surface, and a bad pitch will only bring England’s inferior spin attack into the game earlier and level the playing field.

The second Test once again showcased Bazball’s value to those wanting to trade the match odds, with some dramatic fluctuations occurring in the first two days, while England’s batting collapses in each innings were hardly against the grain as far as this team in concerned. With England, betting for the unexpected is rarely a bad philosophy.

Keep faith with Kuldeep

At this stage, I’m kicking off by backing KULDEEP YADAV to be India’s top first innings bowler at 7/2.

The role Kuldeep played in last week’s victory has gone largely unnoticed, but his spell on the third morning was one of the catalysts for England’s implosion as he ripped out Jonny Bairstow for a duck and the previously untroubled Ben Duckett for 153. He deserved more than two wickets in that innings, and the two he claimed in the second dig as the left-arm wrist-spinner again bowled with excellent control and his usual dose of mystery.

With no Bumrah to worry about, this market will be easier to win in Ranchi, for all Ravi Ashwin and Ravi Jadeja loom big dangers once again. Ashwin joined the 500 Test wickets club in Rajkot, but England have played him well so far in the series, taking him at 4.11 run per over. Jadeja’s economy rate is 4.16, though he helped himself to five second innings wickets in the last match.

Both are clearly outstanding bowlers, but Kuldeep is a class act, too, and though from a much smaller sample size (10 matches), his strike-rate in Test cricket is only 38.7. By way of comparison, Ashwin’s is 51.4 and Jadeja’s 58.5. The caveat to that is that Kuldeep has only played two Test matches outside of Asia, but nevertheless, there can be no doubting that we are dealing with a genuine wicket-taker here.

I’m not sure the market quite reflects that, nor his chances here against an England batting line-up that doesn’t yet appear to have a good handle on Kuldeep’s wrist-spin. 7/2 is well worth a bet.

Despite the unknowns surrounding the pitch this week, it would be plain stupid for India to have requested such poor conditions that makes this match a lottery, and they will know that at 2-1 up in the series, they will be hard to catch from here if they can keep posting big runs in the first innings.

Back Jadeja and Crawley for milestones

With that in mind, I’m going to back RAVI JADEJA to make a first-innings fifty and a first-innings century at 10/3 and 12/1 respectively.

We were with Jadeja at 8/1 for top India batsman honours in the second Test and though stroking a fabulous 112, he was just denied as Rohit Sharma took the honours with 131. Still, it was a fine return from Jadeja who also struck 87 in the first Test, and he is building quite the record against England having now made two hundreds and six fifties against this opponent in 18 matches.

Jadeja’s batting has improved immeasurably over the last couple of years, so expect him to hold his spot at number five in the batting order, with a left-hander a very handy asset in there to combat Tom Hartley – England’s left-arm spinner and leading wicket-taker in the series.

The form of Rohit and Yashasvi Jaiswal means I’m not mad keen to take another punt at the top India batsman market, but I still believe the left-handers in particular can make big runs against this away attack, so betting Jadeja in the milestones markets looks the way to go.

I’ll take a similar approach with ZAK CRAWLEY who has been outshone by Duckett and Ollie Pope so far but struck a pair of fine seventies in the second Test and then made a couple of promising starts last time around.

I’m convinced Crawley is bubbling towards to the sort of big score he made when blasting 189 from 182 balls at Old Trafford in last summer’s Ashes, or the 122 made in Rawalpindi just over a year ago. Key to both of those knocks were the pitches, both true and offering next to no sideways movement to the seamers. In such a scenario, Crawley becomes such a dangerous animal.

In truth, he’s looked largely untroubled all throughout the series so far, and also made starts (20 and 31) in Hyderabad. A couple of controversial LWB calls haven’t gone his way, but as a punter you have to keep in mind that fractions can make all the difference in this game, and those dismissals don’t detract from how well Crawley has played in general. Like it or not, luck plays a huge part and when Crawley’s luck turns, and it will, he looks in good enough form to make it count.

Crawley’s weakness has always been the seaming ball outside off stump, testing his technique and brining the cordon into play. But that hasn’t really been a factor in India as yet, and that should be even less the case without Bumrah to worry about this week.

The stage is set for Crawley to go well and backing him to make a first-innings fifty and a first-innings hundred is the advice.

Preview published at 1525 GMT on 21/02/24

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