Is it Mismatch Day in the NBA? There are seven teams favored by a touchdown or more on Thursday’s NBA odds board. The biggest of which is the Denver Nuggets.

The reigning NBA champs are an eye-popping 15-point home favorite for tonight’s matchup against the lowly Washington Wizards. The Wizards’ nine wins this season are only, um, bested by the poor Detroit Pistons.

Denver stumbled a bit heading into the All-Star break, and have spent much of the season struggling to cover big numbers. Does Washington have some value as a massive road dog? 

I break down this matchup and bring you the best bet, plus a same-game parlay in my NBA picks and predictions for Wizards vs. Nuggets.

Wizards vs Nuggets odds

Wizards vs Nuggets predictions

The Denver Nuggets’ goal in the unofficial second half of the season seems pretty simple. Be as healthy as possible in order to have the best chance to defend their NBA title.

They come out of the All-Star break with a 36-19 record and sit in fourth place in the Western Conference, just three games behind the first-place Minnesota Timberwolves. However, Denver went into the break in a bit of a slide.

The Nuggets had lost three in a row heading into All-Star weekend, thanks to an offense that was sputtering. The team averaged just 99.7 points in those losses. Now, some of that can be attributed to the fact that starting guards Jamal Murray and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope have both been nursing injuries and have missed some time.

Someone who has tried to pick up the slack has been Aaron Gordon. The Nuggets power forward is averaging 13.7 points and 6.7 rebounds per game this season, but his production has seen an uptick lately. Gordon is putting up 15.1 points per game over his last nine games while shooting a solid 56.2% from the floor. He’ll have a great opportunity to keep that going in a great matchup against a Washington Wizards team devoid of any magic.

While a losing streak like this has been rare for the Nuggets, they are the norm for the Wizards, who went into the break losers of eight in a row. They now have five losing streaks of six games or more this season. 

Washington has not been good offensively, but on defense, they leak like a sieve. The Wizards rank 27th in defensive rating and 25th in opponent-effective field goal percentage. A lot of damage is done on the inside. Washington surrenders the second most points in the paint per game in the NBA.

While that might make you think about betting on some Nikola Jokic props, he tends to get numbers with less value due to his success and popularity. 

So, Gordon is the guy. Nearly 68% of his field goal attempts come from within five feet of the basket and the rest are mostly threes. His point total for this one is sitting at 14.5 and he’s gone Over that number in five of his last nine games.

My best bet: Aaron Gordon Over 14.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)

Wizards vs Nuggets same-game parlay

Aaron Gordon Over 14.5 points

Aaron Gordon Over 6.5 rebounds

Reggie Jackson Over 8.5 points

Buckets won’t be the only way Gordon impacts the game. He’s putting in more work on the glass of late as well, averaging 7.0 boards per game over his last 15 contests. The Wizards are the worst team in the NBA when it comes to rebounding rate. Add Over 6.5 rebounds for Gordon as well. 

Another player who has stepped up for the Nuggets has been backup guard Reggie Jackson. The veteran is averaging 10.9 points per game this season while shooting a solid 37.2% from beyond the arc. 

Both Jamal Murray and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are probable to play in this game, but they aren’t completely off the injury report and I wouldn’t be surprised if Nuggets head coach Mike Malone didn’t push them too hard here. Which could mean more of a run for Jackson. Add the Over on his 8.5 points.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Wizards vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis

As noted, the Nuggets are the biggest favorites on the NBA betting board tonight, laying a whopping 15 points against the visiting Wizards at opening. And maybe that number is big enough to scare off some bettors because that’s where the number sits as of Thursday afternoon.

Now, the Nuggets are undoubtedly the better team in this matchup, ranking ninth in the Association in net rating compared to the Wizards 26th. Nikola Jokic could be a massive matchup problem for the Wizards as well. 

That said, this is a big number. Something the Nuggets haven’t done well this season is covering big numbers. They are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games when laying 10 or more points. A recent example of this was their back-to-back games against the Portland Trail Blazers on Feb. 2 and 4 where they were favored by 14 and 15 points. The Nuggets won both games but only by 9 and 12 points. 

And with some key players still nursing some injuries I wouldn’t be surprised if Denver let off the gas late and allowed Washington to grab a backdoor cover. I’m staying away from the spread in this one.

When it comes to the total, that hit the board at 230.5 and that’s where it remains as of writing. Both teams have been trending toward the Under this season but for different reasons.

The Wizards as 25-29 O/U thanks to ranking 25th in offensive rating. The Nuggets are one of the best Under teams in the NBA at 19-35-1 thanks to an underrated defense and an offense that ranks 28th in pace. I’d have a slight lean to the Under here.

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Wizards vs Nuggets betting trend to know

The Nuggets are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games when favored by 10 or more points. Find more NBA betting trends for Wizards vs. Nuggets.

Wizards vs Nuggets game info

Wizards vs Nuggets latest injuries

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